"Israeli and Palestinian negotiators will aim to reach a "final status" agreement over the next nine months to end their long conflict, the US secretary of state has said. John Kerry said another meeting between the two sides would be held in either Israel or the Palestinian territories in the next two weeks. This, he said, would begin the process of formal negotiations. Mr Kerry said "all issues" would be on the table for discussion. "They are on the table with one simple goal: a view to ending the conflict, ending the claims."Over the past 20 years we heard the same grand declarations over and over and over again. Remember the Madrid Conference (1991)? The Oslo Accords (1993)? The Camp David Summit (2000)? The Taba Summit (2001)? The Road Map For Peace (2002)? The Arab Peace Initiative (2002-2007)? They *all* failed, none of them yielded any tangible result. So why would anybody put any hope at all in the latest "final" talks?! What, if anything, has changed recently?
Actually, something did change: the Palestinian leadership in essence committed a "strategic suicide" when it decided to side with the USA and Israel and against Syria, Iran and Hezbollah. This betrayal of those who for years supported the Palestinian struggle at great cost for themselves will go down in history as an act of truly unparalleled infamy. It was also just about the dumbest thing the Palestinians could have done. Sure, siding with Saddam Hussein in 1991 was dumb enough, but to side with the US, Israel and the Gulf Fat Cats who have been financing the war against Syria will also go down in history as an act of truly unparalleled stupidity.
Abba Eban supposedly once said "the Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity". He might have been understating the problem. It appears to me that the Palestinians never miss an opportunity to make the wrong choice and side with the wrong party. As a result, all the current Palestinian organizations, with the notable exception of the Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine (IJMP), have now become puppets in the hands of the Zionists. This is why the US is now feeling that the time has come to try to obtain some kind of "final agreement": the Palestinians have *already* comprehensively surrendered to the Zionists.
So what could happen at these negotiations?
Well, let's first look at what will not happen. What will not happen is the creation of two states separated by the 1967 borders. The main reason why this will not happen is not even that the Israelis have exactly *zero* incentive to make any concessions, the main reason why this will not happen is simply because it is impossible. Physically impossible. Impossible because the West Bank is not full of Israeli enclaves which have permeated it like metastasized cancer invades an organ. No country can be made of many small parts separated by highways, concertina wires, many small walls and one big Wall. At this point in time, the various chunks of territory which would be left to the Palestinians would not even be worthy of being called Bantustans. You think I am exaggerating? Check out this map and see for yourself:
But it's not just the Zionists metastasizes which make a Palestinian state impossible. Even if the Jews withdrew from the West Bank (which they won't), they would give it exactly the same degree of "independence" as what they gave to Gaza: zero. Didn't do them much good in Gaza, but they would also attempt to "remote control" the West Bank from outside.
Furthermore, in order to reach a settlement, the two parties would have to engage in lengthy negotiations on each of the crucial points. However, it is no great secret that you do never want to negotiate from a position of weakness. And yet, once these negotiations will begin, the Palestinians will be negotiating not from a position of weakness, but from a position of irrelevance. Yes, that's right. The Palestinians have made themselves irrelevant. Think for yourself: what kind of arguments could the Palestinians bring to the table? What promise? What concession? What implied threat? That's right: nothing.
At this point in time both Fatah and Hamas are de-facto controlled financially by the Gulf States and politically by the USA. Worse, Abbas - who is supposed to represent the Palestinian people - has *zero* legitimacy (his mandate has long expired). Egypt, which had the potential of being a crucial ally for the Palestinians is busy sliding into a civil war in which both sides are skillfully manipulated by the same Gulf States and the USA. Kind Abdullah II of Jordan is a total US lackey and nobody in the wider Arab or Muslim world will do anything meaningful to help the Palestinians. As for those who could have meaningfully support the Palestinians (Iran, Syria and Hezbollah), the Palestinians have back-stabbed them (I think of Hezbollah and Iranian trained Palestinian units fighting on the side of al-Qaeda/al-Nusra in Syria).
Sure, Iran and, to a lesser extend, Syria and Hezbollah will continue to provide some forms of help to the Palestinians, if only because they support the Palestinian people themselves. I suppose that they will try to get most of that aid to the IJMP, but at least at this moment in time, the IJMP is too small and still too weak to really make a difference. Besides, by virtue of not being a puppet of the US CIA the IJMP is also not an acceptable "partner" for any US sponsored "negotiations" (the Americans only negotiate with their own puppets, hence all the "pre-conditions" to any US sponsored/approved "negotiations").
So what will the upcoming "negotiations" be about?
They will be about how much Abbas can overtly give up without triggering an insurrection by his own people. This is really crucial: as long as Abbas can pretend to be negotiating for some kind "final settlement" with the Israelis, and as long as the details of this final settlement remains amorphous, the Palestinian elites can continue pretending like there is something to be gained by negotiating. But if Abbas openly and comprehensively caves in to Israeli demands, then the corrupt and wealthy elites of Ramallah and Nablus will risk facing a popular revolt. So keeping up the fiction of negotiations is crucial to maintain the current Palestinian power structure in power.
What about the Israelis, what do they want?
Basically, they want all the land, just enough Palestinians to serve as a cheap work force (slaves), and enough Gulf money to pay the Palestinians to shut up and not cause any further trouble. Most of that, they already have. What they don't have and still want is some kind of international recognition and acceptance of the current situation: just like nobody seriously pesters US diplomats or businessmen with the fate of Native Americans (Indians), the Israelis don't want to be constantly pestered about the Palestinian issue. What they want is just turn the page and let's get on with business as usual.
Needless to say, the Israelis probably understand that the Palestinian people will not just vanish into thin air with a "pop!" nor will they all agree to live in exile. They probably suspect that by the time they realize that their own elites sold them out to the Israelis, there will be some kind of reaction, probably a violent one. But when that happens, the Israelis will be able to wave the "final" agreements of 2013 or 2014 and say that "all parties", including "all" the Palestinian factions (except, o f course, for the ones labeled as "terrorists" such as the IJMP), the Quartet on the Middle-East, the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation had accepted this *final* agreement that there was nothing left to negotiate. At which point they will unleash the usual Jewish bloodbath against the resisting Palestinians but, this time, with the blessing of the so-called "international community". From the Israeli point of view, any "final" agreement will thus be a license to kill.
Again, it did not have to be that way. Some Fatah factions and Hamas definitely had the potential of turning into a meaningful resistance against the Zionist occupation of Palestine. Sadly, however, the Palestinians did it to themselves by their betrayal of the other members of the Resistance. Now there will be A LOT of very bad "karma" to pay for that betrayal.
Does that mean that the future has not hope for the Palestinian people? Maybe, but not necessarily.
The good news for the Palestinians is that their current "enemies" - Iran, Syria and Hezbollah - are going nowhere and, in fact, there is a very good chance that the Syrian government will prevail in the current war. Such a "victory", even if relative, will immensely strengthen Syria and Hezbollah and it will further strengthen the international position of Iran and even Russia (though the Russians really don't care much about the Palestinians, their concern if far more for the Syrians and, even more so, for Iran). Furthermore, sooner or later the Palestinian people will come to their senses and understand that they have been conned by their own elites and that their only real allies are Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. If such a realization comes to them at a time when the US Empire will be even weaker than it is today and/or at a time when the al-Qaeda Wahabi-types will begin to seriously threaten the Gulf monarchies (say as a backlash to a lost war in Syria), there is a real change that a meaningful Palestinian resistance will begin to slowly reassemble itself, but around a different ideology (not the corrupt pseudo nationalism of Fatah or the reactionary Islamism of Hamas) and, of course, completely different leaders. I don't know that this will happen, but I want to believe that this is still possible.
The other good news for the Palestinians is that the existence of a state based on a theocratic pseudo-democracy focused on an overtly racist world view with strong elements of self-worship is not just a Palestinian problem, or even a Middle-Eastern problem. Its a world-wide problem. Anybody doubting this should ask himself was a country whose nuclear deterrence policy is centered around the Sampson Option is working on increasing the range of its nuclear weapons far beyond the limits of the Middle-East. The answer is self-evident: if the "Jewish state of Israel" should ever fall, it will take a maximal number of goyim with it. And that is, of course, a planetary problem (I would also add that the very existence of an overtly racist state is also a disgrace for all of mankind).
Just like Wahhabism, Rabbinical Judaism (which should really be called Rabbinical Phariseism since all the modern forms of "Judaism" are really the direct descendant of the Sect of the Pharisees as described in the New Testament) and modern Zionism (which, unlike its historical early form, has now turned into a secular version of Phariseism) are religions based on hatred of the "other". These are ideologies/worldviews which neatly breaks up all of mankind into two categories: the chosen ones and the hated ones. The Wahabis see themselves as the only real Muslims and everybody else, including all other non-Wahabi Muslims, as Kufar (unbelievers) while Pharisees see themselves as the only "humans" and everybody else as semi-beasts with a hatred for Jews deeply embedded in their DNA (that is their cop-out explanation for what they call "Antisemitism"). The Wahabis want to kill all the "others" while the Pharisees want to subjugate them all and, I kid you not, even "fix" creation.
Now, not to sound like Dubya, but I would strongly suggest that no form of peaceful coexistence is possible with these two ideologies. Remember, we are dealing with folks who sincerely believe that they have a God-ordained mission to either convert all of mankind or subjugate it. Departing from such a mission is, in the minds of these people, a form of apostasy and both religions consider apostasy as a capital crime. Therefore, this combination of 1) a "mandate from God Himself" and 2) a mission to transform all of mankind by logical necessity creates what can only be considered as an existential threat for all of mankind. Simply put: regardless of what "we" (all other "others) do or do not do, these folks (the Wahabis and the Pharisees) will not leave us alone. Ever.
As long as these sick ideologies were confined to a small section of the Arabian desert or a few small shtetls in Eastern Europe their existence was really no big deal. I mean - really - how many evil crackpots and sick ideologies has this planet seen since the dawn of mankind? Lots! And most of them remained within very local confines and only affected their immediate vicinity. In our case, however, we have to add a third component which make both Wahabism and Rabbinical Phariseism such existential threats to the rest of mankind: both of these ideologies have now metastasized far beyond their initial confines and they now have an undeniable world-wide reach. Of course, this was unfortunately made possible by the crucial role of the United States which saw both of these forces as playing a crucial, albeit different, role in its plans for global domination of the planet.
What all this means for the Palestinians is that pretty much regardless of what they will do, their enemy - the Zionists - is literally constantly generating its own antithesis (in a dialectical sense) in a never-ending process: the more powerful the Zionists become, the more powerful the resistance against them becomes (and herein, of course, lies to real cause of "Antisemitism" in human history). It might take a long time, but sooner or later mankind will firmly and resolutely "push-back" against this evil. And both Islam and Christianity teach that when eventually some form of evil (we do not know for sure which form this will be, a current one or a yet unknown one) will succeed in subduing the entire planet, then Christ Himself will return to save mankind.
Whatever may be the case, the Zionist regime which is currently "occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time" (to quote Ayatollah Khomeini) and will be replaced by some kind of non-racist state of its citizens. In other words, the liberation of Palestine is inevitable. The problem is that as a consequence of the Palestinian betrayal of the Resistance this might take much, much longer that one could have hoped for.
For the time being all what we will see is this: in the short term US-sponsored pseudo-negotiations to formally legalize all the illegal land grab made by the Zionists in Palestine and in the longer term the granting to the Zionists of a license to kill anybody opposed to this legalization. That's it. And if even that fails, the Israelis will yet again have an opportunity to say that they made some great offers which the Palestinians refused. That too is a license to kill.
The much advertised "final status" is really a "final solution". Everybody knows it, but nobody dares to openly say it.